@Article{PavanelliPort:2023:GeViHa,
               author = "Pavanelli, Jo{\~a}o Arthur Pompeu and Portella, Roberto de 
                         Oliveira",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
                title = "Genetic viability and habitat suitability of the critically 
                         endangered southern muriqui (Brachyteles arachnoides) in the 
                         Atlantic Forest's fragmented landscapes under land use and climate 
                         change scenarios",
              journal = "Climate Change Ecology",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "5",
                pages = "e100065",
                month = "July",
             keywords = "Atelidae, Habitat loss, Maxent, PHVA, Species distribution 
                         modelling, Vortex.",
             abstract = "The joint effects of climate change and landscape fragmentation to 
                         the genetic viability of isolated populations has barely been 
                         addressed for the Atlantic Forest fauna. Therefore, this work 
                         explored the potential habitat suitability for the southern 
                         muriqui (Brachyteles arachnoides), by modeling climate change, 
                         landscape fragmentation, and genetic diversity loss of the 
                         species. Maxent was used to model its potential distribution in 
                         2050, with two climate change scenarios. A land use and land cover 
                         change model was applied to describe current and future forest 
                         fragmentation patterns, and a Population and Habitat Viability 
                         Analysis (PHVA) was used to describe the retention of genetic 
                         diversity of the southern muriqui. Although PHVA modeling provided 
                         a low risk of extinction of the southern muriqui, climate change 
                         and fragmentation could result in the loss of >65% of the suitable 
                         forest patches, and reduce the habitat suitability to only 11% of 
                         the potential distribution area, which could lead to future 
                         genetic diversity loss and decreased capacity of self-sustained 
                         populations. In both climate change scenarios, the suitable areas 
                         for the southern muriqui in Paran{\'a} and Rio de Janeiro states 
                         will decrease more drastically. Areas where the primate occurs in 
                         the interior of S{\~a}o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states will 
                         disappear or be climatically disconnected from the core potential 
                         habitat. Alike preventing further deforestation, Atlantic Forest 
                         restoration actions are needed to connect the viable populations 
                         for compensating the projected land use and climate change impacts 
                         to the long term persistence of the southern muriqui.",
                  doi = "10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100065",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100065",
                 issn = "2666-9005",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "1-s2.0-S2666900523000011-main.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}